Is Kamala Harris’ Bubble Bursting?

Vice President Kamala Harris’ political “honeymoon” could be coming to an end, according to one prominent political scientist who warned that the Democratic presidential nominee is likely to face increased scrutiny of her policy proposals that he said are “arguably far to the left of the median U.S. voter.”
The claim was made to Newsweek by Thomas Gift, who heads the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London, though another American politics expert said Harris’ speech to the Democratic National Convention (DNC) is likely to “extend her honeymoon period into next week.”
Harris quickly established herself as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race on July 21 and endorsed Harris. She proceeded to poll ahead of former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in more than a dozen surveys and for a time became favorite to win November’s election with a number of leading bookmakers.
However, over the past few days Harris has suffered a number of blows, and on Thursday bookmakers Paddypower, Betfair, William Hill and 888.sport were once again offering more favorable odds of Trump winning the presidency than her.
This week also saw the publication of a Navigator Research poll of five battleground states that found Harris either tied with Trump, or behind him, in all of them.
For the survey, 600 likely voters were questioned in each of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. It found Trump was ahead of Harris in Arizona and Pennsylvania, by 1 and 2 percentage points, respectively, while the rivals were tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden won Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though he narrowly lost North Carolina.
On Friday, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who earlier in the cycle ran as a Democrat, suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.
An analysis of recent polling by election website RacetotheWH found Kennedy dropping out could be enough to give Trump victory in North Carolina and Nevada because of their overlapping bases of support.
As of Friday, polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight had Harris 3.5 points ahead of Trump with 47.2 percent against 43.7 percent, while Kennedy was third at 4.4 percent.
“Harris has been basking in adulation and positive media coverage for weeks,” Gift said. “But her honeymoon will end. Honeymoons always do. Once she’s forced to get specific on policies, Americans will be reminded of why Harris was rated as one of the most liberal senators in Congress. Her record, and many of her current policy proposals, are arguably far to the left of the median U.S. voter.
“Trump will also get better at knowing what lines of attack work against Harris. Expect to hear the phrase ‘San Francisco liberal’ over and over and over. Just weeks ago, it looked like Trump would cruise to victory. Now, many think the exact opposite. What we know for sure is that a lot can happen between now and Election Day on November 5.”
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., described the race as “too close to call” but predicted Harris will get a boost from her nomination acceptance speech on Thursday, when she urged voters to help her “write the next great chapter in the greatest story ever told.”
“This is the narrowest of races and simply too close to call at the moment,” he said. “Harris’ elegant, passionate and focused address to the DNC is likely to extend her honeymoon period into next week and may well bring her the latest bounce in the polls.
“But the real race starts here. Can she maintain that passion and energy beyond Chicago and into a seemingly endless round of stump speeches—and how will she fare when she finally sits down with the media? Trump is a known quantity. His very divisiveness wins him a particular kind of voter.
“Whatever he says in his ‘Trump Show’ rallies, he still maintains strong polling on the economy, on immigration and on crime. Harris has to change the perceived narrative, and she hasn’t got a whole lot of time to do that. The key hinge point will be the September 10 debate. Any polling before that carries relatively little weight.”
Christopher Phelps, a historian of modern American politics who teaches at the University of Nottingham, agreed that Harris “is likely to see a convention bounce” after what he termed a “well-executed acceptance speech.”
However, Phelps told Newsweek that polling can give a misleading impression as Electoral College votes determine the election, with Trump beating Hillary Clinton in 2016 thanks to this system despite getting around 3 million fewer votes.
“The Electoral College is what really matters,” Phelps said. “Harris is ahead in polling averages in most of the critical state contests, including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with Arizona a toss-up.
“Though there are only 73 days left—and actually mail-in balloting starts much sooner—the months of September and October can be wild ones in politics. This race is very tight and is likely to remain close down to Election Day.”
Dafydd Townley, who teaches U.S. politics at the University of Portsmouth and is vice-chair of the American Politics Group UK, told Newsweek that the Harris campaign has built momentum and could maintain this with a strong debate performance and vigorous campaigning.
He said: “Biden’s withdrawal, Harris’s nomination, and the selection of Walz as the VP candidate has given all the momentum to the Democrats. They have dominated the press, and this has annoyed Trump, whose selection of JD Vance as his VP candidate has backfired immensely.
“If Harris can put in a good performance at the debate in Philadelphia on September 10th, then she could make her position even more favorable. But she must avoid making the same mistake as Clinton did in 2016 and campaign vigorously for the next 80 days. If she and Walz can maintain the energy that they have shown over the last few weeks – and there are no indications that they cannot – then it could be four more years for the Democrats in the White House.”
When approached for comment by Newsweek, in reference to the academics cited, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said: “Wait, wait, wait… These are people not in America?”
Newsweek contacted representatives of Harris’ presidential campaign for comment via email.
Update 8/24/24 3:15 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung and University of Portsmouth academic Dafydd Townley.